A buyer pricing a Cabo San Lucas condo against its rental income this season will likely run into one figure. AirDNA says the average active short-term rental in Cabo San Lucas earned $84.1K in the 12 months through September 2026, up 88.9% year over year. At face value, that number says a Cabo rental now earns almost twice what it did a year ago.
It doesn't say that. In the same period, fewer people flew into Los Cabos and the hotels ran emptier. The average climbed because the set of listings behind it changed. For anyone reading a rental projection on a Cabo San Lucas property this fall, that difference matters more than the headline.
What the Dashboard Shows for September 2026
Here is the full set of AirDNA figures for Cabo San Lucas, trailing twelve months through September 2026, with each one's change from September 2025.
| Metric | Through September 2026 | Change vs. September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Active listings | 2,434 | -72.4% |
| Average annual revenue per listing | $84.1K | +88.9% |
| Occupancy | 48% | +11.9% |
| Average daily rate | $567 | -15.0% |
| RevPAR | $273 | +1.5% |
Two of these rows tell the story. Active listings fell by almost three quarters, and RevPAR barely moved. RevPAR is revenue per available rental night. AirDNA calculates it as occupancy times average daily rate and calls it "the truest measure of earning power per available night." Nightly rates fell 15% and occupancy rose 11.9%. AirDNA's market-level RevPAR for the period came out up 1.5%, so by its own measure a typical available night earned about what it did the year before.
The Gap Between Two Growth Rates
Revenue per listing rose 88.9%. RevPAR rose 1.5%. A gap that wide can't come from what each night earned. It points to the listings in the count being open more nights, to a different mix of properties in the count, or to both. AirDNA's annual revenue figure also includes cleaning and other guest fees, which RevPAR leaves out, so the two numbers don't convert neatly into a count of nights.
AirDNA's Cabo San Lucas supply page shows what the current count looks like. Of the current listings, 67.3% are available 271 to 365 nights a year, 16.5% are available 181 to 270, 10.8% are part-time at 91 to 180, and only 5.4% are seasonal at 1 to 90 nights. The same page lists 96% of listings as entire homes, and 2-bedroom units are the largest group at 33%.
Demand Went the Other Way
If the jump reflected more visitors, other measures of travel to Los Cabos would show it. Three independent ones point down.
- Airport traffic. In its October 6, 2026 traffic report, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico said Los Cabos International Airport handled 374.9 thousand terminal passengers in September 2026, against 405.5 thousand in September 2025, a 7.5% decrease. From January through September 2026 the airport handled 5,351.2 thousand passengers, down 5.6% from 5,671.1 thousand a year earlier.
- Hotel occupancy since March. Lilzi Orcí, president of the Asociación de Hoteles de Los Cabos, told Meganoticias on September 7 that starting in March the destination had closed each month a few percentage points below 2025. She expected September to finish near 46%.
- September against September. The Gringo Gazette reported on September 3 that August closed near 56% hotel occupancy and that September was projected at 45%, compared with about 47% in September 2025. Both September hotel figures are forecasts, not final results.
Orcí also told Meganoticias that airline forecasts and online bookings pointed to October arrivals beating 2025, starting in the third week of the month. That outlook covers the season starting now. It isn't in the trailing-twelve-month data behind the $84.1K.
Over the same months, passenger traffic fell, hotel occupancy ran below the prior year and short-term rental RevPAR stayed flat. The more likely explanation for the higher average is a smaller pool of listings, most of them open close to year-round, and not stronger demand.
Who Is Still Being Counted
There are two ways the count can shrink, and the public data can't fully separate them.
The first is real exits. Owners who rented a few weeks a year may have stopped listing, which leaves the full-time operators. AirDNA counts a listing as active if it was available or booked at any point in the trailing 12 months. Losing occasional hosts would lower the listing count and raise average revenue in just the way the table shows.
The second is a change in how listings are counted. In its June 2026 data update, AirDNA said it had added Booking.com to its short-term rental product and launched Model 5.0. That model includes a matching system that "identifies properties listed across multiple platforms, eliminating duplicates," and a reservation algorithm that separates guest bookings from days the host blocked. In Cabo San Lucas, 44.5% of listings are cross-listed on more than one platform. AirDNA doesn't say how much of the year-over-year drop, if any, comes from the new matching. Either way, the comparison is between two differently built groups of listings.
San José del Cabo follows the same pattern under a different set of conditions. AirDNA's San José del Cabo page shows active listings down 57.4% to 652 and revenue per listing up 63.6%, while RevPAR fell 28.2% for the same twelve months through September 2026. There, average revenue per listing rose even though earnings per available night fell by more than a quarter. AirDNA's market boundaries for Cabo San Lucas, San José del Cabo and "Los Cabos" aren't explained on its public pages, so those counts shouldn't be added together or compared directly.
Even the Size of the Market Is Disputed
Nobody agrees on how many rentals operate here, and the rules explain part of the confusion. Javier Olivares Velázquez, executive president of ASUDESTICO, the Baja California Sur timeshare developers' association, put the number at about 8,000 short-term lodging properties across Los Cabos. He made the estimate at a meeting of the Grupo Madrugadores de Los Cabos, as reported by Bitácora BCS on July 16, 2026, and said platform supply could be even larger. That figure covers the whole municipality and comes from an industry group, so it can't be lined up against AirDNA's Cabo San Lucas count.
No registry counts these properties directly. In a June 9 Meganoticias report, Orcí said building a full inventory of platform rentals has proved difficult elsewhere in Mexico. The outlet reported that the local debate centers on possible added control and registration mechanisms. As of that report, it was a discussion and not an enacted rule.
What does apply now is a tax. The state's official procedure for the lodging services tax sets a 4% rate, requires lodging providers to register with the state for it, and sets monthly payment by the 15th of the following month. Airbnb's help page says it collects a 4% lodging tax on Baja California Sur bookings, including cleaning fees, and that hosts remain responsible for their other state and municipal tax obligations. Meganoticias also reported an environmental sanitation fee in addition to the lodging tax. This is general information, not legal or tax advice. Any buyer planning to rent should confirm their own obligations with a qualified Mexican accountant or attorney.
What to Ask for Instead of the Average
A market average now mostly describes full-time operators. For a specific unit, these numbers say more:
- The unit's booking history for the last twelve months, month by month, broken into nights booked and nightly rates.
- Nights available versus nights blocked. A unit open 150 nights shouldn't be compared with an average built mostly from listings open 271 nights or more.
- The unit's RevPAR next to the market's $273, which compares earnings per available night instead of yearly totals that depend on how long a unit stays listed.
- Gross revenue with platform fees, cleaning, management and the 4% lodging tax separated out, so the totals match how AirDNA builds its revenue figure.
- How the unit is distributed. With 44.5% of local listings cross-listed, which platforms the unit uses changes its reach.
FAQ
Does the 72.4% drop mean most Cabo San Lucas rentals shut down? Not necessarily. AirDNA changed how it matches listings across platforms in June 2026 and hasn't said how much of the decline comes from that. Some of it may be part-time hosts leaving.
Is the $84.1K average wrong? It's accurate for the listings AirDNA counted through September 2026. Those listings are now mostly available 271 nights or more a year, so the average fits a full-time rental much better than an occasional one.
Does Airbnb handle all the tax on a booking? Airbnb says it collects the 4% Baja California Sur lodging tax and that hosts keep their other state and municipal obligations.
Apex Real Estate Los Cabos can help you get a unit's booking calendar and RevPAR from a seller and set them against the current market before you make an offer. Schedule a private consultation.
